Unless dramatic changes happen to our economy (which is not likely), we see 2012 being much like 2011 for automotive consumers.

Here are some of the things that we see occuring in 2012:

- Honda and Toyota will finally return to full production after the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan. They’ve lost business, market share, and some loyal customers. They will want it all back, and will offer some of the best incentives in the industry to help make it happen. We don’t know exactly when this will occur but expect it no later than mid-year 2012.

- As soon as Honda and Toyota begin their aggressive incentive programs, other car manufacturers will have to compete with their own programs. In this sense, an incentive war will be of great benefit to consumers. Good deals will be everywhere.

- Expect to see Hyundai and Kia make a big play for market share in 2012. New incentive programs and new styling will help make it happen.

- American car makers such as Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors have been taking advantage of the lull during 2011 with an excellent combination of rebates, factory-to-dealer cash, and 0% APR loans. It has been a good year to buy an American made car. We expect 2012 will be just as good if not better.

- Used car prices will remain high in 2012, as they have during 2011. The price gap between new cars and used cars has narrowed considerably. This makes new cars even better deals, especially when we consider that trade-in prices are also higher.

- We’ll continue to see many 0% APR and other low-interest loan deals because U.S. interest rates are at all-time lows and it’s not a big stretch for car companies to offer customers reduced rates as sales incentives.

- Luxury car makers will continue to resist offering incentives, knowing that their typical customer is not bargain hunting. BMW will be the exception, as they have been in 2011, by offering attractive lease deals, factory-to-dealer cash, and assorted bonuses (but not rebates). BMW leases are generally great deals.

- Great deals will be available early in 2012 on leftover 2011 models. Since there are very few differences (in most cases) between 2011 and 2012 models, the leftover vehicles make good deals. Mercury vehicles will no longer be made but there are leftover 2011 and 2012 models being sold by Ford dealers at fantastic bargains.

- Nissan will continue to be agressive with incentives in 2012, but we don’t quite know what to expect from other Japanese companies such as Mazda, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, and Subaru.

Overall, 2012 will be a good year for new-car buyers. Leasing will continue to grow in popularity, especially for luxury cars. Interest rates will continue to be low. Credit requirements will ease off a bit, but still remain relatively tight. Smaller cars and hybrids will be become more numerous. Electrics will remain a big question mark. We’ll welcome Fiat but will miss Saturn, Mercury, Pontiac, and Dodge Ram (now just Ram).

You can get free price quotes on any new-car make and model from Edmunds.comThe quotes will automatically include any cash-back rebates or discounts that are currently available.

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Scion

Toyota created the brand specifically for a young and young-at-heart customer set, with fresh new styling and features, but retaining the value and reliability that the company has been famous for.

For December, Scion is offering a number of special special lease deals on selected styles of each of its models (except the brand new Scion IQ not yet available in all parts of the U.S.), including both 2011 and 2012 models.

All these deals are for 36 months, 36,000 miles allowance, and vehicles with automatic transmissions. All require a down payment of only $650 and first month’s payment, due at lease signing.

The deals end on January 3, 2012.

Following are the current Scion lease deals:

2011 Scion xB – $219/month, $869 due at signing (Rated 75 – Excellent)

2011 Scion xB Release Series – $239/month, $889 due at signing (Rated 85 – Excellent)

2012 Scion xB – $237/month, $887 due at signing (Rated 70 – Good)

2011 Scion xD – $209/month, $859 due at signing (Rated 73 – Good)

2011 Scion xD Release Series – $229/month, $879 due at signing (Rated 81 – Excellent)

2012 Scion xD – $219/month, $869 due at signing (Rated 71 – Good)

2011 Scion tC – $219/month, $889 due at signing (Rated 78 – Excellent)

2012 Scion tC – $254/month, $904 due at signing (Rated 75 – Excellent)

The ratings shown with the above listings were determined by LeaseGuide.com. As can be seen, all the lease deals are good deals but some are better than others. The 2011 Scion xB Release Series is the best, followed closely by the 2011 Scion xD Release Series. Since all these leases are subvented by the manufacturer, each is better than a customer could negotiate for themselves.

In order to get these special deals customers are required to be “qualified” as specified in the fine print of the offers. This means customers must have a good credit score to be accepted. Of course, anyone thinking of buying or leasing a new car should know their most recent credit score, which is easy enough to get from online sources such as FreeCreditScore.com.

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UPDATE: The recent earthquake in Japan in March 2011 has significantly affected both Japanese and U.S. car production which has affected availability of many car brands and models which, in turn, is affecting incentive programs. For more details, see “Best Car Deals Might Be Now.”  

In 2010, new car and truck business improved significantly; the cash-for-clunkers program helped kickstart sales; there were  more and larger manufacturers’ incentives; car leasing made a big comeback; and end-of-year deals were never better.

So, what’s in store for the remainder of 2011? Will car deals be as good or better as in past months?

Yes, we think that car manufacturers want to maintain the momentum they built up in 2010 and want to keep it going in 2011 with new incentives in the form of direct customer rebates, special lease deals, 0% APR loan deals, and factory-to-dealer cash.

It’s difficult to predict exactly what will happen throughout the year because even the car makers don’t know from one month to the next exactly what they will do. They look at sales figures and the success (or failure) of incentive programs for the past month, which tells them whether they need to have new programs for the coming month.

Even with all the uncertainty, there are some things we know for sure:  

We know for sure that there will be some incredible deals on leftover 2010 models in the first few months of 2011, although choices and colors might be limited.

We know there will be more and better lease deals because car leasing is steadily recovering and growing from a near collapse in 2008-2009.

We know that credit restrictions will ease in the coming year, making it easier for more people to get into a new car.

We also know that good used cars will still be harder to find and that prices will remain high.

We know that Honda will continue to offer some of the best lease deals in the industry on some of its models and styles.

We know that American car makers, who are getting back into leasing, will offer more and better lease deals in 2011 than in the last two years.

We know that Toyota will continue to offer attractive deals because it is still recovering from bad publicity related to reliability problems in 2010.

We know that Hyundai will emerge as one of the most respected car makers of 2011, with exciting new styles, great reliability, and affordable prices.

We know that hybrids and electric cars, particularly the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, will become the “hot” cars of the year (read: don’t expect great deals on these cars).

We know that Ford will make great strides in reliability, styling, technology, and value. GM will make noticeable improvements as well. Chrysler will be more agressive with new deals and model improvements.

As we move further into 2011, stay tuned to this web site. We will report new car deals as we learn about them, which is the same time that dealers learn about them.

December has always been a great time for anyone looking to buy or lease a new car. This December is no exception.

Some of the best deals are on leftover 2010 models this year, now that many 2011 models have arrived. Dealers have clearance sales to reduce leftover inventories. However, there are many good deals on brand new 2011 models as well.

Car manufacturers help their dealers by putting attractive incentives on cars during this time of year to promote sales during what would otherwise be a very slow selling season. They offer rebates, low-interest loans, 0% APR loans, special lease deals, and generous “hidden” factory-to-dealer rebates that end up as customer price discounts. Dealers also kick in with their own price discounts on top of the manufacturer’s incentives — all added together to make some of the best deals of the year without even asking.

In some states, dealers are charged inventory property taxes on vehicles on their lots as of midnight December 31 each year. Obviously, they want to have as few cars on the lot as possible on that date, hence a big reason to offer customers special deals to buy before that date.

Here are some of the best car deals for December that have already been announced. Other announcements will follow in the early days of the month. All of these deals will expire on January 3, 2011.

• 2011 Dodge Caliber, Dakota, Nitro – $2000 rebate or 0% APR financing
• 2011 Jeep Liberty, Patriot – $1000 rebate or 0% APR financing
• 2011 Ram 1500, 2500/3500 – $1000-$2000 rebate or 0% APR financing
• 2010 Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram (most models) – $1500-$5500 rebates or 0% APR loan rate
• 2011 Buick Enclave, Lucerne – $2000-$4000 rebate or 0% APR loan rate
• 2011 Cadillac CTS, Escalade, SRX – 0% APR loan rate
• 2011 Chevrolet (most models) – up to $3000 rebate or 0% APR loan on Impala, HHR, Malibu, and Traverse
• 2011 GMC (most models) – up to $2500 rebate or 0% APR loan on Canyon, Savana
• 2010 Buick, Enclave – $2500-$4000 rebate or 0% APR loan rate
• 2010 Chevrolet (most models) – up to $5000 rebate or 0% APr financing
• 2010 GMC (most models) – up to $5000 rebate or 0% APR financing
• 2011 Acura MDX, RDX, TL – 0.9% APR financing
• 2011 Honda Accord, Civic, CR-V, Pilot - 0.9% APR financing
• 2010 Acura (most models) – 0.9% APR loan
• 2010 Honda Accord, Crosstour, Civic, CR-V, Fit, Insight – 0.9% APR financing
• 2011 Hyundai (most models) – up to $1000 rebate or 0% APR on Sonata, Accent, Genesis
• 2011 Kia (most models) – up to $2000 rebate or 0% APR on Sedona, Sorento
• 2010 Hyundai (most models) - up to $2500 rebate or 0% APR on Sonata, Elantra, Santa Fe, Accent
• 2010 Kia (most models) – up to $$3000 rebate or 0% APR on Optima, Sedona, Sportage, Forte, Soul
• 2010 Land Rover (most models) – 0.9% APR loan rate
• 2011 Subaru (most models) – low interest loans
• 2010 Subaru Impreza – 0% APR loan rate
• 2011 Audi (most models) – low interest loans
• 2010 Volkswagen (most models) – 0% APR loan rates
• 2011 Volvo (all models) – 0% APR financing

You can get free price quotes on any of the above vehicles from Edmunds.com.The quotes will automatically include any cash-back rebates or discounts that are currently available.

If you want to take advantage of special end-of-year deals, you have to act quickly because, this year, most promotions end on January 4, 2010, the first Monday after the first of the year.

Let’s take a look at some of the current year-end 2009 special deals (most are for new 2010 models):

Ford Focus – $500 rebate, plus $1500 Ford Credit rebate, plus $1500 year-end promotional rebate — or $1500 and 0% APR financing. 

Ford Fusion – $1000 rebate, plus $1000 promotional rebate — or $1000 rebate combined with 0% APR loan

Ford Mustang – $1500 rebate, plus $1000 Ford Credit rebate, plus $1500 promotional rebate — or $1500 plus $1000 rebate and 0% APR loan rate

Lincoln MKS – $2000 rebate, plus $1500 promotional rebate — or $1500 rebate and 0% APR loan rate

Lincoln MKZ – special year-end lease deal – $329 a month for 27 months, $3929 due at signing

Lincoln Navigator – $4000 rebate, plus $1500 year-end promotional rebate

GMC Sierra – 2009 models – $4000-$6000 rebate or 0% APR loan rate

GMC Yukon – 2009 models – $6000 rebate or 0% APR loan

Buick Enclave – $2500 rebate or 1.9% APR special loan rate — or $399 a month special lease for 39 months, $2549 due at signing

Honda Accord EX – special lease deal – $249 a month for 36 months, $2399 due at signing

Saturn – 2009 models – $4000 rebate, plus $1500 bonus cash, plus $1000 loyalty cash to owners of previous GM vehicles

Chrysler 300 – $4000 customer rebate cash

Chrysler PT Cruiser – $2000 customer cash

Jeep Grand Cherokee and Jeep Commander – $4000 customer rebate cash

Dodge Charger – $4000 customer rebate

Dodge Ram 1500 – $5500 customer rebate, plus $1500 bonus cash

Mazda – special 42-month lease deals on Mazda3 ($239/mo), Mazda6 ($269/mo), CX-7 ($299/mo), and CX-9 ($399/mo) with $0 due at signing — or 0% APR loan rate for 36 months

Nissan Altima 2.5 – special lease deal – $199 a month, 39 months, $2999 due at signing

These are all great deals but remember that it’s the car manufacturer who is making the deal, not the dealer. You should actually be able to improve on the deals by asking the dealer to chip in with his own price discount on top of the manufacturer rebates. This is the way to get some incredible end-of-year bargains. Don’t let a dealer tell you he can’t do it. If he wants to sell cars, he will do it.

You can get free price quotes on any of the above cars from Edmunds.com.The quotes will automatically include any cash-back rebates or discounts that are currently available.

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